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US DoD Unmanned Aerial System Market : A Market in Transition from New System Procurement to Supporting and Upgrading Existing Platforms

  • December 2014
  • 111 pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
Report ID: 2604033


Table of Contents

Key Findings

•The Department of Defense (DoD) budget request in the 2015 president’s budget (PB) is $ x billion plus $ x billion for overseas contingency operations (OCO) funding as well as $ x billion for President Obama’s Opportunity, Growth and Security Initiative (OGSI). OCO and OGSI are both exempt from the budget caps instituted by the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011.
•Unmanned aerial system (UAS) funding through 2019 is forecasted to experience a x % compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This forecast assumes PB is approved as requested.
•Procurement funding will decrease during the forecast period from about $ x billion to $ x billion.
oThere is a significant dip in fiscal year (FY) 2015 as the Army’s MQ-1C nears the end of programmed production.
oIn FY 2016, the procurement of Navy MQ-4C Tritons brings planned procurement spending back to the $ x billion range.
•Research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) funding is planned to increase significantly due to the Air Force’s (AF) Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B) platform. However, it is possible that the platform has already been developed using classified funding, and RDT&E funds may be reprogrammed for procurement.
•High altitude, long endurance (HALE) vehicles are the largest UAS segment with a 2015 budget request of $ x billion. This includes $ x million in RDT&E funding for LRS-B.
•In 2014, the DoD awarded $ x billion to x companies in the UAS market. General Atomics was the top UAS firm with $ x billion in contracts.
•Also in 2014, the top x market competitors owned x % of the DoD UAS market, representing a slight decrease when compared to the x % of market spending owned by the top x companies in 2012.

CEO’s Perspective

There will be very few new start UAS procurement programs. Growth will be seen in the market to support and upgrade current systems.
While US demand for military UASs is decreasing, global demand is increasing. Trade restrictions continue to hamper the ability of US companies to compete globally.
Competition in the global market for military UASs is increasing as more foreign companies develop highly capable systems.
As the DoD UAS procurement budget remains flat, domestic UAS manufacturers must exploit opportunities in foreign military and global commercial UAS markets in order to achieve growth.
Future UASs, tactical and larger, will require defensive capabilities, or be teamed with manned systems, for protection. Ground-based counter UAS systems are rapidly being developed to defeat UAS threats.

Market Definitions

•This research service is an overview of program funding and contract activity for the DoD’s UAS activities.
•UASs provide end users with real-time or near real-time information, including video, day/night imagery, and communications as well as the ability to detect, track, target, and attack suspected threats.
•The research service does not include classified programs and budgets, making a portion of the total UAS market spending information unreportable.
•Program funding is derived from the DoD fiscal year (FY) 2015 president’s budget (PB). FY 2015 overseas contingency operation (OCO) funds are included in the budget data.
•Contract data is based on FY 2014 UAS-related contract obligations taken from the Federal Procurement Database System (FPDS).
•Program funding and contract values do not always align year to year because of a combination of administration costs, multi-year contracts, and technology use across segments.
•Program and contract segmentation with funding forecasts beyond 2013 are made at the analyst’s discretion.
•The data in this research service has been checked against official DoD budget documents and verified by multiple industry participants to provide the best possible information at the time research was conducted.
•The DoD UAS market includes funding/contracts for sensors that can be used on multiple air/ground platforms. This information is included because it is deemed significant to market competitors.
•LRS-B is not specifically identified as an unmanned platform, and the AF has discussed the possibility of the program being classified as a family of systems that includes manned, unmanned, and optionally manned aircraft. For the purposes of this study, the LRS-B is considered an optionally manned aircraft to comply with the congressional mandate that one-third of the AF aircraft inventory be unmanned.
•All calculations are based on the DoD FY, which lasts from 1 October to 30 September.
•Information is reported by military service: AF, Army, Navy, and Joint. The Navy includes the Marine Corps, and Joint includes Special Operations Command (SOC), Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

Important Note: FY 2014 UAS contract information has been provided as part of this research service. Please keep the following points in mind:
•Contract data is derived from FPDS.
•Contracting officers have up to 90 days to input contract information into the system.
•The data in this research service contains all information available as of 30 September 2014. All calculations of contract spending in this study only account for information available by that date.
•All contract data for FY 2014 is not required to be in FPDS until 31 December 2014.
•As a service to clients, this research study will be updated with all contract data for 2014 once it is available.

Key Questions this Study will Answer

Is the DoD UAS market growing, how long will it continue to grow, and at what rate?
What segments, technologies, and services make up the market?
What are the leading market drivers, restraints, and challenges?
What are the top programs for the DoD UAS market?
What technologies and services will be emphasized?
What companies are leading the market?

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