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Country Forecast Algeria November 2017 Updater

Country Forecast Algeria November 2017 Updater

  • November 2017
  • ID: 325655
  • Format: PDF
  • By The Economist Intelligence Unit

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  • The political outlook is uncertain given the fragile health of the president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who won a fourth five-year term in the 2014 presidential election. The lack of clarity over the country's political future and tensions over who will eventually succeed him will weaken political stability. Mr Bouteflika may run for a fifth term; if not, The Economist Intelligence Unit expects someone within the power structure to replace him, thus ensuring a degree of continuity.
  • Security risks will remain an issue, as a long-running Islamist insurgency is still active inside Algeria despite the military's efforts to eradicate it. Insecurity in the subregion also means that the risk of terrorist attack remains high.
  • The policy stance will be inconsistent, mixing economic nationalism and protectionism with more pro-market reforms aimed at spurring non-oil private-sector growth. Overall progress on private-sector development will be slow.
  • Foreign companies will continue to find the operating environment difficult as the government maintains restrictive rules on imports, foreign investment and foreign ownership. Security and regulatory risks will deter many investors, including in the hydrocarbons sector.
  • Reliance on hydrocarbons poses structural risks to the economy. The government will attempt to diversify the economy by supporting the domestic private sector and financial services, but the state's influence will remain strong. Government borrowing will also crowd out private-sector investment.
  • The government will seek to further improve Algeria's transport and energy infrastructure. However, a challenging business environment and a tighter fiscal position will lead to delays in meeting deadlines for projects.
  • We expect average oil prices to remain subdued in 2018-22. However, spending pressures remain high, and the government will continue to record large fiscal deficits. The shortfalls will be manageable, but Algeria's public debt burden (currently low) will rise rapidly as a result. Government reserves are almost depleted and the lack of fiscal discipline poses medium-term risks.
  • We expect real GDP growth to average 2.2% in 2018-22. Little new oil is expected to come on stream during the forecast period, but natural gas production will rise, providing some support to overall GDP growth


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