1. Market Research
Country Report Ghana October 2017

Country Report Ghana October 2017

  • October 2017
  • ID: 325838
  • Format: PDF
  • By The Economist Intelligence Unit

Summary

Table of Contents

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Outlook for 2018-22



  • Ghana's overall political stability is not in question, but the fiercely contested political landscape will cause significant tension between the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress.
  • The NPP's ambitious industrialisation programme will proceed more slowly than planned, given a tight fiscal position and the need to preserve debt sustainability.
  • New oil and gas production will boost real GDP growth in 2018-19, which will then ease in 2020 amid challenging global conditions. Prospects for 2021-22 are more favourable as some gains from the industrialisation programme are felt.
  • Inflation will decline to below 10% for most of 2018-22, but not by much amid growing local demand, rising global commodity prices and a weakening currency.
  • The cedi will remain prone to periods of volatility, given a dependence on commodity exports for hard-currency earnings and changing trends in investor sentiment to emerging markets.
  • The current-account deficit will average around 3.5% of GDP in 2018-22 as new oil output is offset by stronger import demand and higher profit remittances.


Review



  • The international tribunal adjudicating a maritime border dispute between Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana has given a ruling favourable to Ghana. The verdict clears the way for further development of oil and gas resources in the region.
  • Year-on-year growth in real GDP increased provisionally to 9% in the second quarter of 2017, driven by a 188% expansion in oil and gas as new fields ramped up production. Non-oil growth was a relatively weak 4%.
  • The vice-president, Mahamudu Bawumia, has announced plans to publicly list as many state-owned enterprises as possible on the local stock exchange.
  • The government has launched its free senior high school education policy. Fees for students entering public senior high schools from the academic year starting September have been abolished in a costly policy initiative.
  • The Bank of Ghana (the central bank) has given all commercial banks a deadline of the end of 2018 to hold a minimum of Gh¢400m (US$91m) as paid-up capital in a move aimed at spurring consolidation in the sector.
  • Plans to establish two agribusinesses have been announced as part of the administration's One District, One Factory industrialisation programme.


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