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Country Report Sudan October 2017

Country Report Sudan October 2017

  • October 2017
  • ID: 325925
  • Format: PDF
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit


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Outlook for 2018-22

  • The National Congress Party and Omar al-Bashir (or his potential successor, Bakri Hassan Saleh) are well placed to win the 2020 elections, given the lack of co-ordinated opposition and tight control of the state apparatus.
  • Rivalry and factionalism between South Sudan's rebel groups limits the existential threat that they pose to the South Sudanese government, but instability is set to persist throughout 2018-19.
  • Most international efforts in South Sudan will focus on humanitarian assistance, but donor patience will continue to be strained by widespread corruption and slow progress on resolving the country's political crisis.
  • Sudanese real GDP growth will range between 3.4% and 4.3% over the forecast period, with hydrocarbons sector performance remaining a key driver. Expansion will be at rates below those necessary to reduce poverty.
  • Inflation in Sudan will remain volatile but will slow in comparison with historical averages, to 8.1% in 2022, as local food supplies improve. Renewed monetisation of the fiscal deficit would lead to much higher rates, however.
  • The government is likely to revise down its import requirements given the unfavourable external environment; nonetheless, Sudan's current account will remain in deficit throughout the forecast period.


  • In the first half of September the US imposed sanctions on three South Sudanese officials, including the information minister, Michael Makuei. Relations between the US and South Sudanese governments have soured over the issues of corruption and instability.
  • In late September the head of the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan, David Shearer, warned that the parties in the conflict-broadly, supporters of the president, Salva Kiir, and of his former deputy, Riek Machar-were showing "little interest" in engaging in serious negotiations.
  • The Sudanese president, Omar al-Bashir, toured Darfur in the second half of September, making a number of public appearances at rallies, and expressing support for local disarmament and resettlement programmes.
  • The Ministry of Finance has proposed that construction of a new inter-national airport at Khartoum be contracted out to an unnamed Turkish company, on a build-own-operate-transfer basis. Previous efforts to build a new international airport have largely stalled because of financing difficulties.
  • A conference on gum arabic was held in Sudan in September, with recommendations for strengthening the sector and its benefits to Sudan. Gum arabic earnings fell in the first half of 2017, despite a rise in export volumes.

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