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Country Report Turkey October 2017

Country Report Turkey October 2017

  • October 2017
  • ID: 325947
  • Format: PDF
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit


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Outlook for 2018-22

  • Despite a narrow victory and allegations of vote fraud in the presidential reform referendum on April 16th, the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will move ahead with his plan to install a presidential system of government.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast is that Mr Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will win the next presidential and parliamentary elections. These are due in late 2019 but could be called earlier.
  • Given the allegations of vote fraud and the close referendum outcome, we expect political instability risk to remain high. This is likely to delay economic reform efforts and hamper the country's economic recovery.
  • We expect moderate fiscal relaxation to result in annual deficits of a still moderate 2.2% of GDP per year on average in 2017-19, wider than in 2016 (1.1%). After the elections, we expect the deficit to fall to 1.4% of GDP in 2022.
  • We estimate that real GDP will expand by 5.5% in 2017, before slowing to a still robust 4.4% per year in 2018-22, assuming that domestic political conditions stabilise and foreign investor confidence in Turkey holds up.
  • The Central Bank of Turkey is likely to keep monetary policy tight to ease infla-tionary pressures and prevent another sharp depreciation of the lira.
  • We expect smaller current-account deficits in the forecast period (2018-22) than in 2010-14, but they will still be large enough to make it difficult for Turkey to meet its external financing needs as global liquidity conditions tighten.


  • On September 22nd Istanbul's AKP mayor, Kadir Topbas, resigned after 13 years in the post. This was followed at the beginning of October by the departure of the mayor of Duzce province, Mehmet Keles.
  • These departures coincided with Mr Erdogan's plan to rejuvenate the AKP, starting at local level. Further mayoral resignations or dismissals are expected ahead of local elections due in March 2019.
  • Relations between Turkey and the US reached their lowest point in decades on October 8th, when the US suspended all non-immigrant visa applications for Turkish citizens at its embassy in Ankara, the capital. Turkey retaliated with a similar suspension at its embassy in Washington DC.
  • The government has announced a series of tax increases together with its annual rolling Medium-Term Programme, containing its macroeconomic projections and fiscal targets for 2018-20.
  • The administration expects the tax increases to keep the budget deficit at about 2% of GDP in 2018-19, falling to 1.6% in 2020, and the public debt/GDP ratio at just under 30%.

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