1. Market Research

Romania Country Report - May, 2016

  • June 2016
  • 36 pages
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
Report ID: 3307135

Summary

Table of Contents

The report covers info as of May 31.



The debt discharge law was promulgated, first debtors have submitted requests already. Banks consider challenhing the bill to Constitutional court - BancPost has already submitted a request in this regard.



Growth forecasts are particularly optimistic. Romania's GDP will accelerate to 4.2% this year from 3.8% last year, driven by surging domestic demand, according to EC's Spring Forecast. But the commission warned on widening budget deficit. The deficit should further deepen in 2017, to 3.4% of GDP, based on a no policy-change assumption, the EC projected. Romania's economy is on a cyclical upswing supported by strong domestic demand, but underlying inflation is expected to continue growing and the current account deficit to widen further because of import growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautioned on May 11 after concluding Article IV Consultations with the country.GDP is expected to rise by 4.2% this year before decelerating to 3.6% y/y in 2017, under the IMF's scenario.

The fiscal stimulus has significant impact. The retail sales index in Romania increased by 19% y/y in Q1, according to the statistics office.



Mixed figures in the real sector. The industrial production growth decelerated to 0.6% y/y in Q1, from 2.0% y/y in Q4 and 2.8% y/y in full 2015. This was the weakest performance since 2009. The construction volume index increased by 1% y/y in Q1, Romania's statistics office said on May 13.



The banking system improves profitability, but fails to spur financial intermediation. Romania's banking system achieved a 1.26% return on assets (ROA) in Q1, versus only 0.91% in Q1 last year and 1.24% in 2015, according to the central bank. Its average assets increased by 2.5% y/y to RON370bn (EUR82.4bn) in the quarter. Bank loans increased by 3% y/y at end-Apr, but the corporate loans were 1.5% down y/. NPL stagnates. The NPL ratio increased marginally by only 0.01pp q/q in Q1



Key Points

oLocal elections are scheduled for June 5

oFourth minister leaves Romanian technocratic government

oGDP 4.3% up y/y in Q1, flash estimate shows

oInflation hits minus 3.25% y/y in April; c-bank cuts 2016 yearend inflation forecast by 0.8pp to 0.6% y/y

oGeneral government budget balanced in Jan-Apr from 0.8% of GDP surplus last year

oPublic debt up 4.6% y/y to 38.1% of GDP at end-March

oBanking system posts EUR258mn profits in Q1, 38% up y/y

oQ1 C/A balance deteriorates to 0.9% of GDP deficit from surplus last year

oForeign trade gap widens 45% y/y to 6-yr peak in Q1

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 60 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 25,000 trusted sources
  • Single User License — provides access to the report by one individual.
  • Department License — allows you to share the report with up to 5 users
  • Site License — allows the report to be shared amongst all employees in a defined country
  • Corporate License — allows for complete access, globally.

Amrita helps you find the right report:

Testimonials

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at
Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

We were impressed with the support that ReportLinker’s research specialists’ team provided. The report we purchased was useful and provided exactly what we want.

Category Manager at
Ikea

ReportLinker gave access to reliable and useful data while avoiding dispersing resources and spending too much time on unnecessary research.

Executive Director at
PwC Advisory

The customer service was fast, responsive, and 100% professional in all my dealings (...) If we have more research needs, I'll certainly prioritize working with ReportLinker!

Scott Griffith

Vice President Marketing at
Maurice Sporting Goods

The research specialist provided prompt, helpful instructions for accessing ReportLinker's product. He also followed up to make sure everything went smoothly and to ensure an easy transition to the next stage of my research

Jessica P Huffman

Research Associate at
American Transportation Research Institute

Excellent customer service. Very responsive and fast.

Director, Corporate Strategy at
Ingredion

I reached out to ReportLinker for a detailed market study on the Air Treatment industry. The quality of the report, the research specialist’s willingness to solve my queries exceeded my expectations. I would definitely recommend ReportLinker for in-depth industry information.

Mariana Mendoza

Global Platform Senior Manager at
Whirlpool Corporation

Thanks! I like what you've provided and will certainly come back if I need to do further research works.

Bee Hin Png

CEO at
LDR Pte Ltd

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at
Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

ref:plp2016

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.