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UK Mortgage Market 2016: Forecasts and Future Opportunities

  • December 2016
  • 36 pages
  • ID: 3375849
In this report:
The economy expanded by ##.##% in the third quarter of 2016 and is expected to grow by ##.##% in total over the calendar year according to the estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with little sign of any immediate post-Brexit slowdown.
This has affected the prime market, with the Knight Frank Prime London Sales Index recording an average price fall of ##.##% in the ## months to November 2016.

Summary

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Brief

2016 has been a good year for the industry, with gross lending anticipated to be 12.0 percent bigger than in 2015. However, market conditions over the next few years are predicted to dampen prospects for future growth. On the supply side, legislative changes in the buy-to-let sector, namely bigger rates of stamp duty and more stringent underwriting requirements, will act as a drag on future growth in what has been the standout sector in the years since the financial crisis. On the demand side, economic uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote will reduce the willingness of consumers to take on more debt.

Main highlights

- Buy-to-let lending, the outstanding success story of new years, will suffer a reversal of fortune due to adverse changes in stamp duty, tax relief, and underwriting criteria. Following a rush by investors to beat the April 2016 increases in stamp duty, additional lending in the latter part of the year has been lower than in 2015, and the sector will flatline in subsequent years.

- Lending on shared ownership properties will see huge percentage increases over the forecast period, largely off the back of the government's additional Affordable Homes Programme. During 2016-21, an estimated 135,000 shared ownership homes will be built under this scheme, thus fueling a boom in associated mortgage lending.

- Equity release continues to enjoy much success, with lending showing meaningful year-on-year growth. Prospects for farther growth are healthy, with different years' worth of property price rises leaving borrowers with plenty of capital value to unlock, while the cost of equity release products is falling.

Abstract

This industry report affords 5-year gross lending forecasts for residential and niche mortgages, together with a in-depth examination of the different demand- and supply-side factors that will determine the market outlook.

It affords insight into:

- The top macroeconomic, regulatory, and other factors that will drive the demand for and supply of mortgages over the next five years.

- The outlook for niche sectors, including buy-to-let, equity release, shared ownership, shared equity, and self-build.

Great reasons to purchase

- Develop more targeted strategies through the analysis of main mortgage market developments.

- Inform your future plans with our 5-year forecast of gross advances for niche product lines.

- Analyze forecasts with details of historic gross advances across a range of specialist mortgage sectors and product types.

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ref:plp2016

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