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Country Forecast Turkey December 2017 Updater

Country Forecast Turkey December 2017 Updater

  • December 2017
  • ID: 359048
  • Format: PDF
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit


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  • The intense political instability that followed the failed coup in July 2016 has eased partially since the approval in a referendum in April 2017 of a set of constitutional changes designed to replace Turkey's parliamentary system of government with an executive presidency. However, the narrow referendum vic-tory and allegations of vote fraud have deepened social and political divisions.
  • The presidential reform, which is due to take effect after the next presidential and parliamentary elections, in 2019, will further undermine Turkey's fragile democratic institutions and governance structures. It provides few checks on the powers of the president and moves the country closer to one-man rule.
  • The Justice and Development Party (AKP) has enjoyed 15 years of single-party rule, and for most of that period political and government effectiveness have improved. However, since 2013 economic policymaking institutions have become increasingly politicised.
  • Since the failed coup, Turkish foreign policy has been heavily conditioned by the domestic political goals of the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, notably his push to establish a presidential system of government. This has resulted in a marked deterioration in Turkey's relations with its Western allies. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a complete rupture to be avoided, but tensions will remain high.
  • Real GDP growth slowed from an annual average of 7.4% in 2010-15 to 3.3% in 2016, owing in part to the disruption to the economy from the failed coup, but also to faltering foreign capital inflows amid expectations of tighter global liquidity. A recovery began in the fourth quarter of 2016, supported by government stimulus measures, political pressure on banks to extend credit and a pick-up in global demand. We expect growth to accelerate to an estimated 5.5% in 2017 and to average 4.2% in 2018-22.
  • We estimate that the Turkish lira will average TL3.66:US$1 in 2017, a fall of 17.4% compared with 2016. From 2018 we forecast that the exchange rate will remain broadly stable in real terms, depreciating mildly in nominal terms, to an average of TL4.28:US$1 in 2022. The Central Bank of Turkey will be constrained in its ability to tighten interest rates. It will have to resort to unorthodox and less effective tools to respond to currency weakness and high inflation.
  • We expect the current-account deficit to be slightly larger in the forecast period compared with 2016, and to remain sufficiently substantial to make it difficult for Turkey to meet its external financing needs if global liquidity is constrained.

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