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Nigeria: Intensifying Price Competition and Further Frequency Spectrum Acquisitions to Drive Telecom Market

Nigeria: Intensifying Price Competition and Further Frequency Spectrum Acquisitions to Drive Telecom Market

  • March 2016
  • 31 pages
  • ID: 3713807
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Brief

Pyramid Research estimates Nigeria's global telecom services revenue reached an estimated $7.9bn in 2015, a 17.00 percent decrease from the previous year. The decline in the global market size is, however, purely due to devaluation of the Nigeria naira to the US dollar. In local currency, the global telecom services revenue actually grew by 2.10 percent from 2014, to reach N1.5trn in 2015. Mobile voice services revenue contributed the biggest segment of global revenue, at an estimated 70.00 percent in 2015. Over the next five years, global services revenue is forecast to grow at a 2.00 percent Compound annual growth rate in dollar terms (8.30 percent in local currency terms) to reach $8.7bn (N2.3trn) in 2020. This will largely be driven by quick growth in mobile data revenue, which is forecast to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.60 percent between 2015 and 2020, to reach $3.1bn (or 35.50 percent of global services revenue) in 2020.

Main highlights

- MTN Nigeria is anticipated to maintain its market leading position in terms of global mobile subscriptions and revenue over the forecast period. However, the operator's market share will progressively decline due to growing ambitious pressure from other operators following meaningful network expansion and upgrades and increased price competition. In 2020, Pyramid Research forecasts MTN Nigeria's share in terms of global services revenue to reach 44.30 percent (from an estimated 50.10 percent in 2015) and a mobile subscriber share of 35.00 percent (from an estimated 41.20 percent in 2015).

- Pyramid Research forecasts 3G subscriptions to reach 81.3m or 38.60 percent of the mobile subscription base in 2020 owing to increased price competition for mobile data as a result of the new removal of regulation on minimum prices for mobile data services. LTE subscriptions will reach 9.3m, or 4.40 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 2020, driven by operators' focus on 4G launch as the NCC plans to auction spectrum allocations for 4G services in 2016.

- Fixed services revenue contribution to global revenue is anticipated to remain marginal over the forecast period (anticipated to reach 9.90 percent in 2020, from an estimated 8.40 percent in 2015); this is due to challenges related to the lack of fixed broadband infrastructure and low demand by the consumer segment given cheaper mobile service substitutes.

Abstract

"Nigeria: Intensifying Price Competition and Further Frequency Spectrum Acquisitions to Drive Telecom Market" offers an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Nigeria today, with in-depth forecasts of main indicators up to 2020. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into the telecom market of Nigeria, analyzing top trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, established on proprietary data from Pyramid Research's databases.It offers exhaustive analysis of the following:

- Nigeria in a regional context; a comparable review of market size and forecasts with that of other countries in the region.

- Economic, demographic and political context in Nigeria.

- The regulatory environment and forecasts; a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as efficient developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans and more.

- A demand profile; analysis as well as forecasts and historical figures of service revenue from fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, info and pay-TV markets.

- Service evolution; a look at the change in the breakdown of global revenue by fixed, pay-TV and mobile sectors and by voice, info and video in the current year as well as the end of the forecast period.

- An detailed sector analysis of fixed telephony and broadband services, mobile voice, data services and pay-TV; a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by technology/platform as well as operator, average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.

- Main opportunities; this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in the telecommunications market in Nigeria.

Great reasons to purchase

- Offers an overview of the Nigerian telecom market through a combination of quantitative and qualitative insights. The graphical information consists of more than 20 charts and tables derived from Pyramid Research's forecast products.

- Build profitable growth strategies by leveraging the analysis which comprises an examination of current player strategies and the future trends of the Nigerian telecommunications market.

- Comprehend the factors behind ongoing and imminent trends in Nigeria's mobile communications, fixed telephony, broadband and pay-TV markets, containing the evolution of service provider market shares, to align product offerings and strategies to meet customer demand.

- Gain insights on main telecom players in the sector and their strategies to grow market share.

- Explore novel opportunities to align your product strategies and offerings to meet customer requirements and succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Nigeria.

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