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North America—Economic Trends 2016 

North America—Economic Trends 2016 

  • April 2016
  • 41 pages
  • ID: 3807855
  • Format: PDF
  • By Frost & Sullivan

Summary

Table of Contents

North America—Economic Trends 2016 : What is Trending in 2016 in North America

The 2016 economic outlook for the US is stable owing to improved housing and strong domestic demand. Growth in Canada is likely to continue to be poor even in 2016 due to its overdependence on oil and other commodities. The energy renaissance in North America in the form of US shale gas and Canadian oil sands has been setback due to low oil prices. In 2016, oil and gas drilling activity in North America is expected to remain shrunken followed by job losses in the energy sector. While the US is on a policy halt at the moment after an interest rate hike in December 2015, Canada is eyeing an ambitious fiscal stimulus to boost growth.

Top Economic Predictions of 2016—North America

Production in the US is expected to fall by million barrels to million bpd in 2016. This might lead to a marginal oil price increase in 2016 but the oil glut will persist at least until 2016 globally, given OPEC’s oil pumping and sanctions on Iran being lifted. Oil prices may increase moderately to $ per barrel in 2016 and they are likely to remain extremely volatile. This will also impact Canada’s economic recovery in 2016.

The US Federal Reserve eyed for gradual hike till 1% post a % increase in the interest rate in December 2015. However, due to persistent global economic volatility in 2016, any more hike before end of Q3 2016 doesn’t seem feasible. Canada, on the other hand, is on an accommodative monetary policy in 2016 and plans for massive fiscal measures to build infrastructure.

Continued global economic volatility and an accompanying monetary policy mismatch between US and rest of the world might result in more appreciation before the dollar declines slightly if oil prices rise in Q4 2016. As the Canadian economy is highly sensitive to the movement of oil prices, the loonie is expected to remain volatile in 2016.

Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, will remain an underlying threat, specifically as far as the the fate of oil price is concerned.

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