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Packaging machinery forecast 2017-2019

Packaging machinery forecast 2017-2019

  • January 2017
  • 917 pages
  • ID: 3868384
  • Format: PDF


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The new report on the current state of the market and future sales trends produced by UCIMA Research Department, called “THE CUBE” aims to provide companies in the packaging machinery sector with a useful tool for analysing, forecasting and simulating the growth prospects for sales in global markets.

Unlike the forecasts made by other data providers, which are often based solely on expected variations in demand for consumption goods in the various geographical regions and/or evaluations made by privileged observers and experts in the industry, the estimates made by UCIMA are differentiated according to three key parameters:

three levels of detail: Global, 6 Macro Regions and 70 individual countries;
Classification into 6 categories: Food, Beverage, Pharmaceutical, Cosmetics, Chemicals, Tobacco-Tissue and others;
Classification into 7 families: Filling machines, Sterilising machines, FFS (Form, Fill and Seal) machines, Cartoning machines, Wrapping machines and Pallet forming machines.

These three variables represent the three axes of a three-dimensional system with the geometric shape of a cube, hence the name of this forecasting model.

The “Cube” offers an extensive and detailed breakdown of the market and consequently a wide range of adequately detailed forecasts, each of which has a specific mix of the three dimensions as its coordinates (e.g. labelling machines for the pharmaceutical industry for sale in Saudi Arabia, filling machines for the beverage industry to be sold in the USA, and so on).

Forecasts are crucial in the short to medium-term (1-4 years) to enable companies to make accurate estimates of their expected sales volumes and, above all, to predict future earnings based on the manufacturing and sales mix adopted. This analysis is also essential for scenario simulations, an activity in which company decision-makers evaluate the short to medium-term impact of potential investment options, whether aimed at consolidating or diversifying these production and sales mixes. It is a dedicated tool developed specifically for Italian companies wishing to analyse the future prospects for change in their export markets or those of their main competitors. By cross-referencing a wide range of different sources (Eurostat, OECD, IMF, WTO and WORLD BANK for macroeconomics, household consumption and country political/institutional analyses; ITC for data on bilateral import-export flows of packaging machinery and spare parts to/from countries all over the world; and lastly the original UCIMA panel survey for machinery export data by machine type and geographical destination provided by Italian companies) and using a complex econometric estimating/calibration and calculation system, the “Cube” offers a truly integrated short and medium-term forecasting system for sales of packaging machinery.

In particular, the evaluation scheme for the expected variation rates for each market area, client sector and family of machines is based on two different estimation models, both applied to packaging machinery exports. The first considers variations in turnover by geographical region over a long-term period (a 14 years time serie), whereas the second assigns greater importance to the more recent economic trends (last 4 years). Calibration was performed using simple interpolation and retropolation control methods (interpolation, parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis backward implemented to calibrate the model).

The results were further calibrated to take account of a range of factors, including the international economic situation and country risk, monetary and currency policies and appreciation/depreciation of bilateral/ multilateral exchange rates and real effective multilateral exchange rates, changes to transaction costs and international exchange regimes (regulatory, legislative and fiscal), the degree of demographic and urban development and the effective consumption of packaging at the individual country level. The unique value of the “Cube” derives firstly from the “holistic” methodological approach adopted in which the forecasts are based on an integrated, coherent estimation/calibration/computation system using many different sources, and secondly from the method used for weighting the three dimensions of the forecast. This weighting takes account of the real importance of the geographical region, client sector and family of machines in the typical production mixes observed amongst the industry leading companies at a global level, including not just the characteristics of the typical production/export mixes of Italian companies (a panel of more than 400 Italian companies) but also those of Italy’s main competitor countries (Germany, USA, China, Japan and others).

This gives rise to a range of 252 expected annual average growth rates across the 6 geographical macro-regions and more than 2,900 growth rates when conducting the analysis at the most detailed level of individual countries. In both cases, the expected growth rates are projected over a period of four years (in this edition, the three-year period 2017- 2019). Because these forecasts are differentiated over three dimensions in which each company can reference the expected sales of its own specific production/export mix, they are more accurate than individual growth/production trends in downstream end product segments, in the final demand of client sectors or in simple territorial growth of machinery exports.

COUNTRY RANKINGS The expected results in terms of size and growth for individual countries are then drawn together into rankings. Rankings are provided for the size of markets in 2015, for the forecasted size in 2019 and for forecasted growth of both the market and Italian exports to these countries. Another ranking, the Growth-MECS (GMECS) ranking, brings together the two key factors determining the attractiveness of markets: size and growth. This ranking considers the size (in terms of value) of the new markets that will be generated in different countries between 2017 and 2019.

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