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PSI Overview of the Power Sector 2016 Ed 1

PSI Overview of the Power Sector 2016 Ed 1

  • July 2016
  • 319 pages
  • ID: 4009343
  • Format: PDF
  • Statplan Energy Ltd

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Overview of Generation, Transmission and Distribution – Infrastructure, Capex and Markets. The electrical utilities overwhelmingly dominate the overall power sector, with 91% of generation, 93% of transmission and 87% of distribution. Captive industrial generators which are recorded account for 5% to 7% of the three segments of GTD, and hidden generators for a further unknown amount. 41% of final electricity consumption is by industry, 23% by commerce and 28% is residential and the balance by public services and railways. Demand is the sum of new plant which is added to existing capacity and replacements for retirements of obsolete and aged assets. Although installed capacity has risen steadily each year, from 3.5 GW in 1900 to 6,228 GW in 2015 the generating sector will have seen three peaks of demand and two troughs by the end of this period. The transmission and distribution networks in various countries have been constructed over different periods of time and this has bearing on the equipment replacement cycles and the patterns of demand. Generating capacity and demand MW for coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar thermal, solar PV, biomass, MSW & waste, geothermal, marine/ocean, T&D, transmission lines km, distribution lines km is provided from 1990 to 2020.Demand for generating capacity varies in large cycles, but demand for transmission and distribution plant has been more even, with smaller cycles. Global capital expenditure on generation, transmission and distribution is estimated at $XXX billion in 2015, rising to a nominal value of $XXX billion in 2016 and to $XXX billion in 2020. In 2016 the total was composed of $XXX billion for generation, $XXX billion for transmission and $XXX billion for distribution. In 2015 generation accounted for XX% of capex with a total of $XXX billion, transmission for XX% at $XXX billion and distribution and distribution for XX% with $XXX billion. Capex in $ is provded for coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind,utility solar, rooftop solal and bioenergy.

The analysis of the equipment markets is concerned with the 53% of capex devoted to purchases of plant and equipment at buyer’s prices. The definition of buyer’s price varies with the type of equipment because different equipment is sold through different marketing channels which incur different mark-ups at various stages. The equipment employed in the power sector is divided into two categories, mechanical and electrical. In the generating sector mechanical equipment has a much higher share of expenditure than electrical equipment, unlike the transmission and distribution sectors. Over the twenty year period from 2000 to 2020 the ratio of sales in the developed countries will have declined and increased for the developing world. We will see a redistribution of global generating capacity. In 2000 Asia Pacific accounted for XXX% of global sales and this rose to XXX% by 2015 and will reach XXX% by 2020. Japan rose from XXX% to XXX% in 2015 but will decline to XXX% by 2020. China remains the largest single country with approximately a 33% share. India will gain share, from XXX% to XXX% and Africa from XXX% to XXX%. Sales of all transmission equipment at buyer’s prices rose from $XXX billion in 2000 to $XXX billion in 2010, $XXX billion in 2015, and are forecast to reach $XXX billion in 2020. Sales of distribution equipment grew from $XXX billion in 2000 to $XXX billion in 2010, $XXX billion in 2016 and are forecast to reach $XXX billion by 2020. In the generation sector market sizes and forecasts are provided for boilers, steam turbines & generators, gas turbines & generators, HRSG heat recovery steam generators, HFO/diesel reciprocating engines, wind turbines mechanical, off-shore wind turbines, hydro turbine, generator & regulators, solar PV modules, solar PV inverters, FGD flue gas desulphurisation, SCR selective catalytic reduction, particulate removal, CPP Coal preparation plant, fly ash handling plant, compressors adn piping, GSU transfomers and GCB breakers..

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