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China Economic and Commercial Vehicle Briefing - Executive Update

China Economic and Commercial Vehicle Briefing - Executive Update

  • November 2016
  • 107 pages
  • ID: 4647345
  • Format: PDF
  • By JSC AUTOMOTIVE GmbH

Summary

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China`s truck market is large by numbers but as complex and volatile. A forecast must refer to the macro-economic development as well as to the government regulation and growth of different industry sectors.

China`s medium and heavy truck market is large with about 750,000 units produced in 2015.

However, there are a number of issues:
- The market shrank by about 25% in 2015. While it will probably increase by 13% in 2016 there is still a huge overcapacity with most players staying put for now.
- More than 60% of the trucks are low cost (less than 340,000 RMB for heavy trucks)
- The share of imports is only around 0.5%
- Real estate construction used to be 1/3 of the business, but is in turmoil now and will only improve as of 2018
- Logistics are very inefficient and dominated by very small fleets with an average size of 1.5 trucks, so that Total-Cost-of-Operation concepts are not attractive for them
- Most international players have found it hard to set up meaningful businesses in China and there is a growing list of failed joint ventures

However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The market will get more sophisticated over time, because the Chinese government has realized that having a truck market of low sophistication leads to a heavy burden on the society with higher emissions, high cost for imports, premature breakdown of infrastructure etc.

The JSC Automotive report begins by outlining the assumptions that determine the macro economic model for the long-term development of the economy and truck industry. JSC Automotive has been working with a macro-economic model for China for many years. The assumptions are continually reviewed and are also the basis for reports for other industries.

In this framework the analysts explain which factors influence the long-, medium- and short-term production forecast. This includes factors like government regulation, progress of the logistic industry as well as the development of the main industries using trucks. The reader will find information on how segmentation will change over time as well as the types of trucks.

At the end the report provides profiles of the main truck makers in China including
- Product program
- Technology level
- Volumes
- Strategy
- Exports
- Capacity utilization
and structural and long-term issues.

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