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Country Forecast Turkey April 2018 Updater

Country Forecast Turkey April 2018 Updater

  • April 2018
  • ID: 470362
  • Format: PDF
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

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  • Turkey is due to hold municipal elections in March 2019 and parliamentary and presidential elections in Novem ber of that year. However, these elections could be held earlier than scheduled, even in 2018, if the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) believe that they have sufficient support to win, or if economic headwinds start to pose a risk to their electoral dominance.
  • After the presidential and parliamentary elections an executive presidency will replace the current parliamentary system of government. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Mr Erdogan and the AKP to win the elections and remain in power until 2024, and probably beyond. The new system provides few checks on the president's powers, moving Turkey closer to one-man rule. Since the failed coup in 2016 there has been a deterioration in Turkey's relations with its Western allies. We expect a complete rupture to be avoided, but tensions will remain high.
  • The AKP has enjoyed 15 years of single-party rule, and for most of that period political and government effectiveness have improved. However, since 2013 economic policymaking institutions have become increasingly politicised. We now expect that the Turkish authorities will accept a much weaker path for the lira than we expected previously, at least during the first half of the forecast period (2018-22), with consequently higher inflation, larger fiscal deficits and smaller current-account deficits.
  • We expect annual budget deficits to widen moderately, to 2.9% of GDP on average in 2018-19 (from 2.4% previously), before narrowing gradually after the elections, to 1.8% of GDP in 2022 (from 1.6% previously). The risk of a larger deterioration in the public finances cannot be ruled out.
  • We forecast a slowdown in real GDP growth from 7.3% in 2017 to a still robust 4.4% per year on average in 2018-22 (4.1% previously), reflecting higher taxes, which will offset the impact of stimulus measures. Our growth forecast assumes that domestic political conditions will stabilise and foreign investor confidence in Turkey will hold up, maintaining foreign capital inflows.
  • We expect the current-account deficit to remain broadly unchanged in 2018 at 5.7% of GDP, before narrowing to a still large 4.9% per year in 2019-22 (5.2% previously). This will make it difficult for Turkey to meet its external financing needs if global liquidity is severely constrained and investor confidence deteriorates.


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