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Country Forecast Slovenia 3rd Quarter 2017

Country Forecast Slovenia 3rd Quarter 2017

  • August 2017
  • ID: 4981379
  • Format: PDF
  • By The Economist Intelligence Unit

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Policy towards private enterprise and competition


2017-18: Gradual privatisation of companies earmarked for sale in 2013 continues, but no new privatisation efforts announced. The state holding company is unable to break vested interests connected to many public companies.


2019-21: Healthcare and pension reform introduce greater competition. Energy and banking sectors undergo structural changes owing to privatisation, although the state retains a hand in both sectors. Privatisation remains politically unpopular.


Policy towards foreign investment


2017-18: Foreign direct investment gradually picks up as privatisation progresses. Capital-starved private companies welcome foreign investors, but public companies remain less attractive owing to political uncertainties.


2019-21: Foreign equity investors increase their activity in Slovenia, taking advantage of favourable post-crisis valuations.


Foreign trade and exchange controls


2017-18: Trade policy is determined at EU level and further trade liberalisation is slow.


2019-21: The share of high-tech exports increases, but the current-account surplus decreases owing to increasing domestic demand. Tourism remains a dominant driver of export earnings.


Taxes


2017-18: Tax registers, increased excise taxes and improved tax collection raise tax receipts.


2019-21: A real estate tax is implemented, but at a low rate and with significant exceptions. No other significant tax reform.


Financing


2017-18: Private-sector credit becomes accessible again. However, financing requirements remain stricter than during 2006-08. The government can easily tap the bond market and sovereign yields remain low.


2019-21: Financing environment continues to improve. Access to equity financing remains impaired for local companies, possibly leading to some government support.


The labour market


2017-18: Unemployment falls rapidly. Emigration of younger, more-educated workers continues but is matched by immigration of low-skilled workers, mostly from south-eastern Europe.


2019-21: Wage growth accelerates, including the minimum wage, weighing on productivity growth.


Infrastructure


2017-18: A lack of public financing weighs on infrastructure investment. Long-term evolution (LTE) internet investments by private telecommunications companies significantly improve access to fast internet connections.


2019-21: Construction investment increases, including on large infrastructure projects. Investment in energy projects rises through public-private partnerships (PPPs). Focus shifts to investment in research and development (R&D) and innovation.



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