1. Market Research
Ukraine Country Report Oct17 - October, 2017

Ukraine Country Report Oct17 - October, 2017

  • October 2017
  • 61 pages
  • ID: 5130631
  • Format: PDF
  • By Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings


Table of Contents

The pace of economic recovery so far this year has not been particularly breathtaking as temporary negative factors, especially the suspension of trade in Eastern Ukraine, have prevented a full-fledged recovery after a hard crisis.

Mid-term prospects look reasonably bright as the economy continues to show fundamental strength. Key macro indicators, including inflation and the BoP, are consistent with a slow but sustainable recovery.

The next IMF review in October is the key event over the coming month. While not critical in the nearterm, securing the next loan tranche is important for the smooth servicing of the large sovereign debt redemptions coming in 2019. However, the government's intention to water down gas price reforms and tinker with the pension reform suggest Ukraine will not receive another IMF tranche this year.

GDP growth remains sluggish and volatile. As expected, industry has been the most vulnerable sector, with y/y growth swinging from negative to positive YTD.

On a positive note, domestic-oriented sectors of the economy are showing persuasive signs that domestic demand is recovering rapidly and becoming the key driver of growth. In 7M17, retail trade grew 7.5% y/y, cargo transportation turnover increased 8.7%, and construction surged 24.2%.

After a mixed 2017 hit by the effect of the trade blockade and a weaker trend in agriculture (we expect a slight output decline for full 2017), economic growth is well-placed to accelerate to 3.5-4.0% in 2018.

Consumer price growth has been accelerating since May and CPI increased 15.9% y/y as at end-July. Accelerating food prices have thus far been the key factor - poor weather had a material negative impact on the fruit and vegetable harvest. The wave of utility tariff revisions continues and the key inflation-related risk on the horizon is the need to revise gas tariffs for households in October (a requirement of the IMF program). The government remains reluctant to pull the trigger and is determined to negotiate a delay with the IMF.

Overall, risks continue to build of end-2017 inflation exceeding forecastst of 10.1% and the NBU's target of 8% +/-2pp. Even though the key inflation drivers are temporary in nature, demand-side factors are gaining weight on a double-digit expansion of nominal household incomes.

There are diminishing prospects for the NBU to further cut its key policy rate (the last 50bp decrease to 12.5% took place in late May); any movement in the key rate is unlikely over the next three months.

The C/A deficit expanded moderately over the past month and the 12-month trailing tally stood at $4.6bn, or 4.4% of 2017E GDP as of July.

Commodity imports are growing robustly and outpacing export growth, supported by both consumer and investment consumption. Imports of energy materials, including gas, have been substantial YTD and should thus decrease over the rest of the year. The C/A deficit approaching c. 4% of GDP for FY 2017.

FDI, debt inflows, and the use of accumulated cash by households remain sufficient to fully cover the C/A shortfall.

The FX market remains fairly balanced - the NBU's sporadic interventions are inconsequential and haven't altered the trend. Based on the stronger-than forecast UAH performance YTD, we revise our average and end-2017 FX rate projection to UAH26.5/$and UAH27.0/$, respectively (from UAH28.0/$and UAH28.5/$).

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 150+ Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 25,000 trusted sources
  • Single User License — provides access to the report by one individual.
  • Department License — allows you to share the report with up to 5 users
  • Site License — allows the report to be shared amongst all employees in a defined country
  • Corporate License — allows for complete access, globally.
Ahmad helps you find the right report:

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at
Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

We were impressed with the support that ReportLinker’s research specialists’ team provided. The report we purchased was useful and provided exactly what we want.

Category Manager at

ReportLinker gave access to reliable and useful data while avoiding dispersing resources and spending too much time on unnecessary research.

Executive Director at
PwC Advisory

The customer service was fast, responsive, and 100% professional in all my dealings (...) If we have more research needs, I'll certainly prioritize working with ReportLinker!

Scott Griffith

Vice President Marketing at
Maurice Sporting Goods

The research specialist provided prompt, helpful instructions for accessing ReportLinker's product. He also followed up to make sure everything went smoothly and to ensure an easy transition to the next stage of my research

Jessica P Huffman

Research Associate at
American Transportation Research Institute

Excellent customer service. Very responsive and fast.

Director, Corporate Strategy at

I reached out to ReportLinker for a detailed market study on the Air Treatment industry. The quality of the report, the research specialist’s willingness to solve my queries exceeded my expectations. I would definitely recommend ReportLinker for in-depth industry information.

Mariana Mendoza

Global Platform Senior Manager at
Whirlpool Corporation

Thanks! I like what you've provided and will certainly come back if I need to do further research works.

Bee Hin Png

CEO at
LDR Pte Ltd

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at
Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

  • How we can help
    • I am not sure if the report I am interested in will fulfill my needs. Can you help me?
    • Yes, of course. You can call us at +33(0) 4 37 65 17 03 or drop us an email at researchadvisor@reportlinker.com to let us know more about your requirements.
    • We buy reports often - can ReportLinker get me any benefits?
    • Yes. Set up a call with a Senior Research Advisor to learn more - researchadvisor@reportlinker.com or +33(0) 4 37 65 17 03.
    • I have had negative experiences with market research reports before. How can you avoid this from happening again?
    • We advise all clients to read the TOC and Summary and list your questions so that we can get more insight for you before you make any purchase decision. A research advisor will accompany you so that you can compare samples and reports from different sources, and choose the study that is right for you.

  • Report Delivery
    • How and when I will receive my Report?
    • Most reports are delivered right away in a pdf format, while others are accessed via a secure link and access codes. Do note that sometimes reports are sent within a 12 hour period, depending on the time zones. However, you can contact us to escalate this. Should you need a hard copy, you can check if this option is offered for the particular report, and pay the related fees.
  • Payment conditions
    • What payment methods do you accept?
      1. Credit card : VISA, American Express, Mastercard, or
      2. You can download an invoice to pay by wire transfer, check, or via a Purchase Order from your company, or
      3. You can pay via a Check made out in US Dollars, Euros, or British Pounds for the full amount made payable to ReportLinker
    • What are ReportLinker’s Payment Terms?
    • All payments must normally be submitted within 30 days. However, you can let us know if you need extended time.
    • Are Taxes and duties included?
    • All companies based in France must pay a 20% tax per report. The same applies to all individuals based in the EU. All EU companies must supply their VAT number when purchasing to avoid this charge.
    • I’m not satisfied. Can I be refunded?
    • No. Once your order has been processed and the publisher has received a notification to send you the report, we cannot issue any refund or cancel any order. As these are not ‘traditional’ products that can be returned, reports that are dispatched are considered to be ‘consumed’.
  • User license
    • The license that you should acquire depends on the number of persons that need to access the report. This can range from Single User (only one person will have the right to read or access the report), or Department License (up to 5 persons), to Site License (a group of persons based in the same company location), or Corporate License (the entire company personnel based worldwide). However, as publishers have different terms and conditions, we can look into this for you.
Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Hand Tools Market by Application, End-users, and Geography - Forecast and Analysis 2020-2024

Hand Tools Market by Application, End-users, and Geography - Forecast and Analysis 2020-2024

  • $ 2500
  • November 2019

Global Hand Tools Market: About this marketThis hand tools market analysis considers sales from general-purpose, metal-cutting, and other applications. Our study also finds the sales of hand tools in APAC, ...

KSA Facilities Management Market, Forecast to 2025

KSA Facilities Management Market, Forecast to 2025

  • $ 4950
  • November 2019

With rapid advances in AI and cloud technology, the global facilities management (FM) market has transformed significantly in recent years.In order to cope with this transformation, the market is witnessing ...

Global Smart Lock Industry

Global Smart Lock Industry

  • $ 4950
  • November 2019

Smart Lock market worldwide is projected to grow by US$2 Billion, driven by a compounded growth of 14%.Deadbolts, one of the segments analyzed and sized in this study, display the potential to grow at ...

Global Pultrusion Industry $ 4950 October 2019


Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2020. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.

Make sure you don’t miss any news and follow us on