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Crohn’s Disease: Forecast

Crohn’s Disease: Forecast

  • December 2017
  • 83 pages
  • ID: 5336397
  • Format: PDF
  • By Datamonitor Healthcare


Table of Contents

Datamonitor Healthcare uses a patient-based approach to size the Crohn’s disease market opportunity across the US, Japan, and five major EU markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) during 2016–25.

New product launches will play a pivotal part in future market dynamics, allowing the Crohn’s disease market in all analyzed markets to grow from $5.9bn in 2016 to approximately $7.9bn in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%. Key new products include the interleukin-12/23 inhibitor Stelara, which launched in the US and EU in late 2016, and the oral SMAD7 antisense oligonucleotide mongersen, which is expected to launch from 2020.

The growth in the Crohn’s disease market comes despite downward pressure from the entry of biosimilars of the key marketed anti-tumor necrosis factor biologics, Remicade and Humira, which will be marketed at a lower cost than the reference brands.

Johnson and Johnson’s Stelara is forecast to be the market-leading brand within Crohn’s disease. Aside from its strong clinical performance to date, convenient dosing schedule, and favorable safety profile, Stelara also benefits from a later patent expiry than Remicade and Humira, resulting in delayed biosimilar competition. In 2023, Stelara is set to overtake Humira as the leading brand with sales of approximately $1.7bn, and it is set to close out the forecast with 2025 sales of approximately $1.8bn.

Mongersen is forecast to see the highest uptake of all the late-phase therapies that are being developed for Crohn’s disease, with estimated 2025 sales of just under $620m. Mongersen’s novel mechanism of action, convenient oral formulation, and favorable safety profile will drive prescribing, despite its overall modest efficacy to date.

Datamonitor Healthcare believes that if mongersen launches at a cost which is equal to or lower than that of the key marketed biologics once discounts are factored in, it will be used early in the Crohn’s disease treatment paradigm.

Patient-based forecasting methodology utilizing epidemiology data and primary research with 240 prescribing gastroenterologists across the US, Japan, and five major EU markets. Pricing, dosing, and future event assumptions are added to create Datamonitor Healthcare’s forecast.

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