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China’s Memory Ambitions

China’s Memory Ambitions

  • September 2019
  • 102 pages
  • ID: 5822761
  • Format: PDF
  • Objective Analysis

Summary

Table of Contents

This report outlines China’s plans to participate in the semiconductor memory (DRAM and NAND flash) markets. It outlines the rationale, the plan, the approach, and the anticipated outcome, to answer the “What, Why, and How?” of the country’s new semiconductor thrust.

We draw parallels not only to prior similar efforts by other market newcomers: Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, but also compare the memory chip effort to China’s other investments in textiles, steel, aluminum, LEDs, and LCD panels. Prior efforts to enter the semiconductor market are also evaluated.

The report attempts to take an unbiased approach, spelling out what several parties must consider when planning for the future:
• Established semiconductor manufacturers are provided with an outlook for the industry that allows them to take China’s actions into their plans.
• Chinese memory makers are shown the most direct means of market entry and the ways that local business norms can impact their efforts.
• Investors are provided with a long-term scenario with which to time their investments
• Tool makers will understand how China’s participation may change the impact of a downturn on their business.

The report ends with a forecast for the most likely market outcome including not only the existing market dynamic, illustrating how it will respond to the addition of a significant new player: How will China’s participation impact the market?

To create this report Objective Analysis has performed thorough and exhaustive ongoing research and interviews with participants at all levels of the supply chain over the past few years. The market forecasts in this report project are based on the pricing forecasts, capital spending analysis, and supply/demand models that Objective Analysis normally uses for its annual semiconductor forecasts, which are the world’s most consistently accurate.

Our Key Findings are:

1. China’s participation in the memory markets will not create an oversupply, but will extend the duration of an oversupply that is already expected for late 2018.
2. This extended oversupply will accelerate further consolidation in the DRAM market, but this consolidation would have eventually occurred even without China’s participation. China’s entry will not cause consolidation in NAND flash.
3. Certain factors will hinder China’s efforts, particularly the effort to create an internally-developed technology and differences in patent law.
4. Government entities will work to protect their local industries both in China and in other nations.

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