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Novo Nordisk

Novo Nordisk

  • July 2020
  • 67 pages
  • ID: 5903929
  • Format: PDF
  • Pharma Intelligence

Summary

Table of Contents

PharmaVitae explores Novo Nordisk’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.

Snapshot
Overview – Novo Nordisk continues to dominate the diabetes segment, but pricing pressure in the US will dampen overall sales growth during the forecast period.
Key Themes – [1] Novo Nordisk will maintain its dominance in diabetes with the launch of Rybelsus [2] Growth in Rest of World regions, especially China, is key to Novo Nordisk’s long-term revenue outlook [3] US volume growth and market share will remain strong, but pricing pressures, discounts, and rebates will limit revenue growth [4] Insulin biosimilars are a key risk to Novo Nordisk’s insulin franchises, but limited impact seen to date.

Model updates (2 June 2020)

Esperoct forecast adjusted lower.

Model updates (6 March 2020)

Tresiba forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
Xultophy forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
Levemir forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
NovoMix forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
NovoRapid forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
Victoza forecast adjusted lower in the US due to patient shifts to Ozempic
Ozempic forecast adjusted higher globally due to continued market share gains and GLP-1 class growth
Rybelsus forecast adjusted lower due to slower launch trend
Saxenda forecast adjusted lower due to future generic competition.

Model updates (8 November 2019)

Tresiba forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
Xultophy forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
Levemir forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
NovoMix forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
NovoRapid forecast adjusted lower in the US due to continued pricing pressure
Victoza forecast adjusted lower in the US due to patient shifts to Ozempic
Ozempic forecast adjusted higher globally due to continued market share gains and GLP-1 class growth
Saxenda forecast adjusted higher in the US and Rest of World due to strong demand.

Model updates (13 August 2019)

Ozempic forecast adjusted higher due to pace of product launch in the US and continued share gains for GLP-1 class globally; launch in Japan delayed until 2020
Victoza forecast adjusted lower due to pace of Ozempic cannibalization
NovoRapid forecast adjusted higher due to less patient shifting to FIAsp
FIAsp forecast adjusted lower due to less patient shifting from NovoRapid
NovoMix forecast adjusted higher due to less patient shifting to Ryzodeg
Ryzodeg forecast adjusted lower due to less patient shifting from NovoMix
Norditropin forecast adjusted higher due to realignment of patent expiration with NordiFlex and FlexPro devices
NovoSeven forecast adjusted higher due to lower impact from Hemlibra launch
Somapacitan launches delayed to 2020 and 2021.

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