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Bus Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecasts (2020 - 2025)

Bus Market - Growth, Trends, and Forecasts (2020 - 2025)

  • July 2020
  • 129 pages
  • ID: 5934736
  • Format: PDF
  • Mordor Intelligence LLP

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The bus market is projected to be worth USD 54.92 billion by 2025, registering a CAGR of 7.58% during the forecast period.

- Buses are the most preferred mode of public transportation as billions of people use buses for day-to-day commute across the world. The bus demand has increased significantly in the recent years, especially in developing countries, such as India, China, Brazil, and Mexico, owing to the rapid population growth, urbanization, and government initiatives to connect rural areas to cities.
- Growing concerns over pollution and rise in stringent emission regulations have encouraged countries to include a greater number of electric buses in the existing bus fleet, thereby contributing to the overall bus market growth.
- Some of the major companies that capture a significant market share include Daimler AG, Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co., Volvo, Traton (Man, Scania etc.), Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, and Alexander Dennis.

Key Market Trends
Increasing Adoption of Electric Buses

Fuel constitutes a major part of the operating cost of any vehicle. With increasing fuel costs, using an electric bus for public transport is significantly cost-effective in the long run.

- Electric buses help reduce 81-83% of the maintenance and operating costs, compared to a diesel engine bus.

Electric buses offer more comfort to travellers compared to gasoline or diesel buses. The NVH levels in electric buses are minimal, unlike traditional diesel buses, providing enhanced comfort to passengers.

Currently, China is the most promising market in this sector, and this is likely to lead the e-bus demand over the forecast period. For instance, in 2018, nearly 23% of bus purchases in China were e-buses. Moreover, the overall bus purchases in the country is expected to remain stable, with more than 400,000 new purchases by 2025. Electric bus purchases are expected to increase, supported by continuous government initiatives to promote e-mobility, and the overall e-bus adoption is likely to reach 40% of new bus purchases, globally, by 2040.

The Chinese e-bus market is likely to be followed by the US and European markets, as it is expected that both the countries may have a combined contribution of more than 40,000 electric heavy-duty vehicles on the roads by 2025. In 2019, approximately 12% of city buses registered were battery-electric. In Western Europe and Poland, as already anticipated, 2019 was a record year with regards to the transition to zero emission buses. The limit of 1,000 electric bus units was already exceeded in September 2019, and the year ended with as many as 1,687 e-buses registered on a total market of 14,392 city buses.

At the end of 2019, 39% of the city buses had an alternative driveline in Europe. In 2018 this was 28% (3.340 buses with an alternative driveline of the total of 11,845 city buses).

Furthermore, governments across the regions are taking initiatives for the promotion of electric vehicles, which are playing a pivotal role in the growth of the on-demand bus industry.

Europe is Expected to Witness the Second-fastest Growth Rate

The European region is expected to witness the second-fastest CAGR of 7.50%, during the forecast period.

In Europe, in 2018, the United Kingdom dominated the market and accounted for 20.22% share of the total market, followed by Germany, France, and Spain. In the United Kingdom, buses are the most frequently used mode of transport. In 2017, 4.4 billion bus trips were made across England, and buses accounted for approximately 59% of all public transport trips in Great Britain, compared to 21% by rail.

Local bus passenger journeys have been continually declining in London, English metropolitan areas, English non-metropolitan areas, England, Scotland, Wales, and Great Britain. The prime reason is the steep decline in travel on local government funded bus and privatization of buses (as bus operators can decide the routes they want to travel), which resulted in sparse services. However, owing to rise in pollution, and to reduce reliance on oil and dependence on oil producing countries, the country has been focusing on e-mobility. Moreover, clean air zones have been introduced in many cities of the United Kingdom, and commuters are deterred by the congestion and high parking costs, which in turn, is propelling the need for clean and efficient bus service in the country.

In Europe, the United Kingdom has the most number of electric buses, with hybrid electric buses currently running in many British cities, representing 18% of the Europe’s entire fleet. The electrification of the country’s road transport is still in its nascent stage, but the falling costs are expected to drive the growth of the market.

Competitive Landscape
The market for buses is a fragmented one, with the major players holding a significant share of the market due to their developed products and network of various dealers. The major players in the market include Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co., Xiamen King Long United, Daimler AG, Volvo, Traton (Man, Scania, etc.), Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, etc.

The other players, such as Solaris, Navistar, IC Bus, etc., hold a relatively smaller market share. These companies are in the process of expanding their operations in local and international markets.

The bus market is characterized by mergers, acquisitions, and collaborations between various manufacturers trying to tap into potential markets. Since the market for electric buses is expected to grow significantly over the forecast period, bus manufacturers are investing considerably in R&D and are subsequently ramping up their portfolio to include more electric models.

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