Executive Summary 4

QuERI Forecast 6

State of Industry 11

2013 WorldSteel Statistics 12

Romania's 2013 apparent steel use down 0.5% y/y to 165kg per capita; 40% down from 2007, 54% of EU27 average - WorldSteel. 12

EU steel consumption seen as strengthening in 2015-16, yet business conditions in the steel sector will remain challenging 13

EC agrees to waive green energy surcharge for large Romanian industrial consumers. 13

STYLISED STRUCTURE OF METAL INDUSTRY 14

IntelliNews model of Romanian steel market - recent developments. 14

Industry Indicators 15

A. GROSS INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT [2010=100] 15

Main drivers over past six quarters: Mechel selling Romanian units and high energy cost. 16

Main driver for next six quarters: external demand and expected recovery of constructions sector. 16

B. SALES INDEX [2010=100] 17

C. MARKET BALANCES 18

IntelliNews model of Romanian steel market - utilisation balance. 18

Foreign Trade Balances 23

Output 32

Corporate Update 32

EC agrees to waive green energy surcharge for large Romanian industrial consumers 32

ARCELORMITTAL 33

ArcelorMittal Hunedoara considers closing down steel processor in Romania 33

Romanian steel maker ArcelorMittal Galati to boost output by 25% in 2015 33

Romanian unit of steel maker ArcelorMittal scarps power delivery contract with Nuclearelectrica 33

TMK 34

Output of TMK Artrom pipe maker up 2% y/y in Jan-Sep 34

MECHEL [formerly] 34

Former Mechel wire maker in Romania breaks even in H1 2014 34

Appendix 35

Appendix 1: Romania's Crude Steel production - monthly, 2004-2014 35

Appendix 2: Romania's Industrial Activity Indices - annual 2006-2013, quarterly 2012- 2014 36

Appendix 3: Romania Steel Industry - detailed exports&imports - annual 2002-2012 [USD/EUR, tonnes] 37

Appendix 3: Romania Steel Industry - detailed exports&imports - H1, 2014 [EUR, tonnes] 40





Figure 1: Demand, Output and Foreign Trade for Romania's iron and steel production sector - 1995 USD mn 7

Figure 2: Demand, Output and Foreign Trade for Romania's steel product manufacturing sector - 1995 USD mn 7

Figure 3: Demand, Output and Foreign Trade for Romania's integrated iron and steel sector - 1995 USD mn 8

Figure 4: Romania's exports of total iron and steel sector 9

Figure 5: Steel benchmark prices [global] starting 2003 11

Figure 6: Romania's total steel balance [tonnes] - 2007-2014 11

Figure 7: Average steel export & import prices 2007-2014 [EUR/ton] 11

Figure 8: Apparent use of steel per capita, by region vs. Romania 12

Figure 9: Stylised IntelliNews model of Romania's metal industry 14

Figure 10: Romania's industrial production index, metal and metal processing industries 200 15

Figure 11: Industrial production index, metal PRODUCTION industry - seasonal pattern 15

Figure 12: Industrial production index, metal PROCESSING industry - seasonal pattern 15

Figure 13: Sales volume index, metal PROCESSING industry [EUR, 2010=100] 17

Figure 14: Sales volume index, metal PRODUCTION industry [EUR, 2010=100] 17

Figure 15: EUR sales per industrial production unit in metal production and metal processing sectors [2006-2013] 18

Figure 16: Raw Steel Goods -- trade, market balances - annual [incl. 2014E] -- Ktonnes 21

Figure 17: Finished Steel Goods -- trade, market balances - annual [incl. 2014E] -- Ktonnes 21

Figure 18: Raw Steel Goods -- trade, market balances - quarterly -- Ktonnes 22

Figure 19: Finished Steel Goods -- trade, market balances - quarterly -- Ktonnes 22

Figure 20: Trade balance, iron and products 23

Figure 21: Romania's quarterly Exports&Imports of metal and metal products [EUR] 2001-2013 24

Figure 22: Romania's quarterly Exports & Imports of metal. [EUR], 2001-13 24

Figure 23: Romania's quarterly Exports&Imports of metal products [EUR], 2001-2013 24

Figure 24: Detailed structure of Romania's exports in 2007 vs. 2013 EUR thous 27

Figure 25: Detailed structure of Romania's exports in 2007 vs. 2013 tonnes 27

Figure 26: Detailed exports for main items [tonnes], 2007-2014 30

Figure 27: Detailed exports for main items [EUR thous], 2007-2014 30

Figure 28: Export prices for export items, quarterly, 2007-2014 [EUR/ton] 31





Table 1: QuERI Forecast - Romania iron and steel sector - 1995 USD mn 8

Table 2: QuERI Forecast - Romania iron and steel sector - y/y 9

Table 3: Price for main steel products [global] starting 2003 11

Table 4: Romania Sales / Industrial Activity Indices (2010=100) 16

Table 5: Romania Balance of Steel, 2002 to 2014 - annual -- Ktonnes 19

Table 6: Romania Balance of Steel, 2011 to 2014 - quarterly -- Ktonnes 20

Table 7: Export, import, balance, annual, iron and iron products separately; annual 23

Table 8: Export, import, balance, annual, iron and iron products separately; quarterly 23

Table 9: Romania's metal industry - detailed exports - annual, 2007-2014 [tonnes] 25

Table 10: Romania's metal industry - detailed exports - annual, 2007-2014 [thous EUR] 26