IDC FutureScape Figure

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

Summary of External Drivers

Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

Prediction 1: Nation States Employ Cognitive/AI on the Cyberfront -- By 2020, Nation States Will Automate Defensive and Offensive Cyberoperations Using Cognitive/AI Technologies and Manage at Least 35% of Low-Level Cyberactivities with Cognitive/AI

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Prediction 2: Hacking for Hire -- By 2020, More than 33% of Attributable Nation State Hack Attacks Will Be Perpetrated by a Freelance Hacker

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Prediction 3: Budget Restricts Security for Many -- In 2017, 70% of Government Security Budgets Will Be Spent on Traditional IT as Next-Gen Security Investments Are Limited by Economic Volatility, Skills Gaps, and Legacy IT Challenges

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Prediction 4: Rampant Risk Growth -- Risks for Identity Fraud, Ransomware, Phishing Scams, and Physical Harm Will Rise by 2018 as Social Media and Mobile Apps Like Pokemon GO Cater to Groups Lacking Cybersecurity Literacy

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Prediction 5: Who's Friend and Who's Foe -- Exposure to More Inherent Risks in Enhanced Security Programs Will Require All G20 Countries to Implement Heightened Background Checks, Improved Accreditation Methods, and Continuous Monitoring of Employees by 2019

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Prediction 6: Smart Cities Support National Security -- By 2020, 50% of Smart Cities Classified at the Repeatable Level of the IDC Smart City Maturity Model Will Integrate Information Collection into National Security Efforts

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Prediction 7: National Governments Formalize Cybersecurity Efforts -- By 2020, 80% of Nation States Will Have a Stated Cybersecurity Policy, and at Least 30% Will Have Cabinet-Level Positions Focused Solely on Cybersecurity

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Prediction 8: Encryption Becomes Endangered -- By 2020, 25% of Countries Will Have Passed or Will Have Tried to Pass Regulations Limiting Access to and the Capabilities of Public Encryption Technologies

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Prediction 9: Protecting Distributed Data -- By 2020, 45% of Governments Will Turn to New Technologies Like DRM and Blockchain to Protect Data as Distribution Increases

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Prediction 10: Diplomacy by Other Means -- By 2019, Cyberattacks Attributed to Smaller Nations Will Double as Countries Like North Korea, Lacking Significant Kinetic Warfare Capabilities, Use It to Level the Diplomatic Playing Field

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Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

DX: Technology-Centric Transformation Altering Business and Society

Everything, Everywhere: The Rise of Computer-Based Intelligence

Disruptive Fault Lines: Security, Privacy, and Regulation

Talent Crunch: Global Demand for Digital Workers

Platform Economy: The Ecosystem Battle for Scale

Innovation Impasse: Systems of Record Constrain Evolution

Connected Conflict: Convergence of Technology and Privacy

Global Volatility: Competition, Power, and Risk

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