Overview 2
Catalyst 2
Summary 2
China is coming force in autonomous vehicle technology 7
Chinese car market is best positioned to adopt autonomous future 7
Domestic companies are protected by foreign competition, enabling swift development 8
State will be vital early customer for autonomous vehicles, helping the Chinese market develop 9
Autonomous vehicle technology is advancing rapidly but is also over-hyped 11
In race to develop first saleable fully autonomous car, some surprising leaders and stragglers have emerged 11
Tesla is not impressing in autonomous vehicles, hurting long-term future of car disruptor 12
Waymo is leading the pack but is not without problems, raising doubts over publicly declared timelines 13
Established car manufacturing brands are involved but offer notes of caution 14
New infrastructure needed for potential of autonomous cars to be realized 15
So far autonomous cars have suggested major changes to roads are required 15
‘Smart roads' offer glimpse of what autonomous car infrastructure will be like 16
Telecoms companies have vital role to play if autonomous cars to become what leading companies claim 16
‘Smart roads' are essential for autonomous cars but funding redevelopment will be hard to achieve 17
State of regulatory systems is influencing autonomous car progress 19
High-profile accidents will engender regulators with caution in allowing fully autonomous vehicles on public roads 19
China is reforming regulation, allowing autonomous vehicles to be tested in real-world conditions 20
Competition to develop indigenous autonomous cars is being helped by regulatory reform 20
More workable US regulation with ambitions of advancing car makers is drawing nearer20
Arrival of autonomous cars will take a while yet 22
Transition period likely to be lengthy due to replacement cycle timeline 22
Much time is needed to develop true autonomy even for major manufacturers 22
Early incarnations of truly autonomous cars are far too expensive for public use 22
Conclusions 24
An autonomous future looms for automotive industry 24
Appendix 25
Sources 25
Further Reading 25
Ask the analyst 26
About MarketLine 26
Disclaimer 26

List of Tables
Table 1: Road deaths in Asia 2013 - top ten worst number of deaths 7

List of Figures
Figure 1: Highest Selling SUVs in China, 2016 (000's) 8
Figure 2: Baidu Driverless Vehicle Testing 9
Figure 3: Artists impression of fully autonomous Chevrolet Bolt 11
Figure 4: Mobileye advertising 12
Figure 5: Waymo test vehicle 13
Figure 6: Road paint recognizable by autonomous cars 15
Figure 7: 3M smart road signs 16
Figure 8: Smart Roads 17
Figure 9: Uber testing fatality 19
Figure 10: Congressman Bob Latta 21

Companies Mentioned