The forecast for fresh surmullet production in UK capture fisheries shows a consistent downward trajectory from 2024 to 2028, beginning at 76.08 metric tons in 2024 and dropping to 44.33 metric tons by 2028. For reference, there were 84 metric tons produced in 2023, indicating an accelerating decline.
Year-on-year variations reveal a concerning trend: a decrease of approximately 10.8% from 2024 to 2025, 11.8% from 2025 to 2026, 13.1% from 2026 to 2027, and finally, around 14.8% from 2027 to 2028. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over this five-year period is negative, highlighting significant decreases each year.
Future trends to watch include the impact of environmental policy changes, advances in sustainable fishing practices, potential shifts in marine ecosystems, and global demand fluctuations. These factors could influence the pace of this decline or offer opportunities for stabilization or alternative growth strategies in the long run.
