The UK forecast for means-tested social protection cash benefits subject to taxation or social contributions shows a progressive decline from 2.32 in 2024 to 0.47 in 2028. In 2023, values stood at 2.80, highlighting a substantial forecasted decrease over the upcoming years. Year-on-year variations are approximately -20.7% from 2024 to 2025, -25% from 2025 to 2026, -33.3% from 2026 to 2027, and -48.9% from 2027 to 2028. The compound average growth rate (CAGR) over this period is projected to be -28.5%, indicating a consistent downward trend.

Future trends to watch for:

Government policy changes affecting social benefit taxation and contributions.
Economic conditions that might influence the need or availability of these benefits.
Social and demographic shifts impacting eligibility and uptake of social protection benefits.