Forecast: Commercial Vehicles in Use in Indonesia

In Indonesia, the total number of commercial vehicles in use has shown a general upward trend over the past decade, starting from 7.9 million units in 2013 to reaching 11.09 million units in 2023. Despite a significant dip in 2020 with a year-on-year decrease of 14.81%, the market quickly rebounded, displaying resilience and recovery over the subsequent years. The period from 2021 to 2022 witnessed a particularly strong bounce back with a considerable year-on-year increase of 17.34% in 2021 followed by 7.8% in 2022. In 2023, a more modest 2.3% year-on-year growth was observed.

Looking into the future, the forecasted data up to 2028 suggests a continued, albeit steady, growth in the commercial vehicle market in Indonesia. The market is expected to reach 12.37 million units by 2028, representing a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 1.77% from 2023 to 2028. This indicates a deceleration in growth compared to the prior decade's average CAGR of 2.53% from 2018 to 2023.

Future trends to watch for:

• Integration of electric and hybrid commercial vehicles due to increasing environmental regulations.
• Technological advancements in fleet management and telematics improving operational efficiency.
• Infrastructure development boosting demand for commercial vehicles in logistics and transportation sectors.
• Potential economic fluctuations and their impact on the pace of market growth.