Crude oil consumption in petroleum refineries in China has exhibited steady growth from 2013 to 2023, increasing from 47.8 million metric tons in 2013 to 78.3 million metric tons in 2023. Over this period, the annual year-on-year variation ranged from 3.19% to 6.83%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years leading up to 2023 was 4.57%, highlighting consistent expansion in consumption volume.
From 2021 to 2023, the year-on-year growth rates showed a slight deceleration, averaging around 4.29%. These rates indicate a moderate but sustained increase in demand. Forecasts from 2024 predict a continuation of this growth, though at a slower pace with a 5-year forecasted CAGR of 2.77%, culminating in a 14.66% increase by 2028, which indicates a potential maturation of the market.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts of global energy transitions, changes in government policy towards energy consumption and carbon emissions, technological advancements in refinery efficiency, and variations in global oil prices. These factors may significantly influence the projected growth in China's crude oil consumption within its petroleum refineries.
