Forecast: Crude Oil and Condensate Production in the UAE

The actual crude oil and condensate production in the UAE showed a fluctuating trend over the last decade, reaching 3.39 million barrels per day (MBD) in 2023. From 2013 to 2023, production experienced notable variations, with significant drops in 2020 and 2021 due to external factors, such as the global pandemic. Despite these fluctuations, from 2018 to 2023, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) remained positive at 0.57%. The year-on-year growth rate in 2023 was relatively stable at 0.73% compared to an 11.54% increase in 2022.

The forecasted data from 2024 to 2028 indicate a consistent upward trend in production with a predicted CAGR of 0.78%, reaching approximately 3.56 MBD by 2028. Over this five-year period, the total growth rate is expected to be around 3.97%.

Future trends to watch for include technological advancements in extraction and production techniques, shifts in global oil demand, geopolitical developments, and changing regulatory frameworks. These factors could significantly impact the forecasted production levels and should be closely monitored.