The production of organic temperate fruits in the UK has been experiencing a consistent downward trend since 2013, with the recorded volume in 2023 standing at 10.78 thousand metric tons. This represents a year-on-year decrease of 3.14% from 2022. Over the past two years, the production has seen a total decrease of approximately 6.25%, indicating a steady decline. The longer-term trend highlights a sharp contraction from 2013 to 2017, and although there were slight recoveries in interim years, the general trajectory remains negative. The 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) leading up to 2023 was -1.08%, underscoring the persistent decline.
Forecasting future trends from 2024 to 2028, the expectation is a continued decrease in production, with an average forecasted CAGR of -2.95%, resulting in an overall forecasted decline of 13.89% by 2028. Factors contributing to this could include changes in consumer preferences, climate challenges, or economic pressures on organic farming. The volume is expected to drop to 8.95 thousand metric tons by 2028.
Future trends to watch for include advancements in agricultural technologies that may boost efficiency and yield, shifts in government policies promoting organic farming, and consumer demand trends towards organic and sustainably produced fruits. These could significantly impact the production volumes and potentially alter the downward trajectory.
