The actual data from 2013 to 2023 indicates a fluctuating trend in rapeseed oil production in Brazil, with a significant decline observed over the past decade. Beginning at 20.94 thousand metric tons in 2013, the production peaked at 29.42 thousand metric tons in 2015. However, since then, there has been a steady decrease in production, culminating in a value of 13.33 thousand metric tons in 2023. The year-on-year changes highlight substantial volatility, with variations ranging from significant growth in 2014 (15.72%) and 2015 (21.39%) to steep declines in 2016 (-18.41%) and 2017 (-31.73%). Over the last five years (2023-2028), the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for production is forecasted to decline at an average annual rate of -4.17%, indicating challenging market conditions ahead. In particular, the forecast reveals a continued reduction, with production projected to reach 10.25 thousand metric tons by 2028.
Future trends to watch for:
- Potential shifts in agricultural policies that may impact production plans.
- Technological advancements in crop yield and oil extraction methods.
- Global market demand fluctuations for rapeseed oil and competitive crops.
- Environmental factors, including climate change, affecting crop yields.
