Forecast: General Government Investment in Defence in France

Over the past decade, France's general government investment in defence has experienced notable fluctuations. From 2013 onwards, there have been periods of significant increases, especially in 2015 and 2016, followed by sharp declines in 2017 and consecutive modest declines and increases. By 2023, the investment stood at 9.03 units, showing a steady but slow increase in recent years. Reviewing the last two years, there was a modest year-on-year growth of about 1.23%. The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) stands at 0.16%, showing minimal growth overall. Looking towards the future, the forecast indicates a steady growth trend with an expected increase to 9.52 units by 2028, with a projected five-year CAGR of 0.84%.

Key future trends to watch for:

• Potential policy changes impacting defence spending in response to geopolitical developments.
• Technological advancements requiring increased investment in modern defence capabilities.
• Economic factors that might influence government budget allocations to defence.