Oil production in Nigeria has experienced a declining trend over the past decade, dropping from 2.28 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2013 to 1.37 mb/d in 2023. Year-on-year variation reveals a consistent downward trend, especially notable over the past two years (2021-2023), with a -10.57% decline in 2021, an -11.24% decrease in 2022, and a -5.82% drop in 2023. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years is -7.38%. Looking forward, forecasted data indicates further decline, with an estimated average annual reduction of -5.51% leading to 0.95992 mb/d by 2028, a 24.66% decrease from 2023 levels.

Future trends to watch for include:

Impact of geopolitical factors and domestic policy changes on production capabilities and export rates.
Technological advancements and investment in infrastructure that could potentially mitigate the decline in production.
Shift towards renewable energy and its influence on global oil demand and Nigerian production strategy.