Forecast: International Tourist Arrivals in China

From 2013 to 2023, international tourist arrivals in China exhibited a variable trend influenced by different market forces and external factors. The most notable disruption occurred in 2020, marked by a dramatic 81.3% decline amid the global COVID-19 pandemic. However, the industry rebounded significantly with a 227.68% increase in 2021 and a 45.5% rise in 2022, culminating in a 23% growth in 2023 to stand at 178.29 million arrivals. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years, including pre-pandemic recovery, averages at 2.37%, indicating resilience and gradual market recovery.

Looking ahead to the forecasted period from 2024 to 2028, China’s tourist arrivals are expected to sustain a steady growth trajectory, marked by a 2.1% annual CAGR and an overall growth rate of 10.94%. By 2028, arrivals are projected to reach 203.5 million.

**Future Trends to Watch For:**

  • Technological advancements in travel and tourism, enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency.
  • Government policies and international relations that might impact travel regulations and tourist influx.
  • Continued recovery and development of tourism infrastructure post-COVID-19.

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