The seed-cotton production in Nigeria is projected to experience a consistent decline from 2024 to 2028. In 2023, the production stood at approximately 196.76 thousand metric tons. For 2024, the forecasted production is 184.55 thousand metric tons, which represents a year-on-year decline of 6.2%. This downward trend is expected to continue, with production in 2025 forecasted at 173.3 thousand metric tons, representing a 6.1% decline from 2024. The subsequent years show similar year-on-year declines: 2026 at 162.29 thousand metric tons (-6.3%), 2027 at 151.49 thousand metric tons (-6.7%), and 2028 at 140.91 thousand metric tons (-7%). The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over these five years indicates an average annual decrease in production of around 7%.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, advancements or setbacks in cotton farming technologies, government policy changes, and market demand fluctuations for cotton both domestically and internationally. Additionally, shifts in global cotton prices and input costs for farmers could influence production levels significantly.
