Based on the data provided, the export of fresh pears in the US has shown considerable fluctuations starting from 2013. Actual export volumes decreased from 449.17 million pounds in 2013 to 277.65 million pounds in 2023, highlighting a long-term declining trend. Noticeable year-on-year variations include significant drops in 2014 (-13.99%), 2015 (-10.42%), and 2016 (-19.79%) followed by fluctuations in subsequent years. 2020 to 2023 observed relatively more stable declines with values around -1.63% year-on-year.
Forecasts for 2024 to 2028 predict continued declines, with volumes expected to decrease to 249.5 million pounds by 2028. The last five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) leading up to 2023 is -1.43%, indicating the average yearly decrease in exports. The average forecasted rate over the next five years is -1.43%, pointing towards an estimated drop of 6.96% by 2028.
Future trends to watch for:
- Potential changes in global trade policies affecting US agricultural exports.
- Shifts in consumer preferences towards local produce and organic products.
- Impacts of climate change affecting pear cultivation and yield.
