Agricultural output subsidies in Italy have shown significant volatility from 2013 to 2023. Starting at €194.1 million in 2013, there was a sharp decline by 30.04% in 2014, followed by smaller fluctuations over the next years. A notable spike of 36.3% occurred in 2016, but overall there was a downward trend, culminating in a 14.92% decline in 2023 to €116.83 million. The last five years have seen an average annual decrease (CAGR) of -3.89%.

Looking ahead, projected subsidies from 2024 onwards show a dramatic downward trend, with an annual decline rate of -28.94% over the next five years. By 2028, subsidies are estimated to plummet to €17.5 million, marking an overall decline of 81.88% from current levels.

Future trends to watch for:

Potential changes in EU agricultural policies that could alter subsidy levels.
Economic conditions impacting the Italian government’s ability to fund agricultural subsidies.
Shifts in agricultural technology and productivity affecting the need for subsidies.