Over the past decade, the import volume of coconut oil in Egypt has shown a significant decline. From 2014 to 2023, the volume decreased from 8.0 thousand metric tons to 2.0 thousand metric tons. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last five years ending in 2023 was -7.79%. Notably, year-on-year variations were marked by substantial drops in certain years: -22.22% in 2016, -28.57% in 2017, and -40% in 2018, followed by relatively stable volumes from 2019 to 2023.
Looking ahead, forecasts predict a sharp decline from 2.0 thousand metric tons in 2023 to near-zero levels by 2028. This indicates a forecasted 5-year CAGR of -63.26% and an overall forecasted growth rate of -99.33%. As we stand in 2024, an expected decrease to 1.52 thousand metric tons is apparent, emphasizing a continuing downward trend.
Future trends to watch for include increasing local production, changes in trade policies, and possible shifts in consumer preferences towards alternative oils. Monitoring these factors will be essential to understand and anticipate further changes in the coconut oil import landscape in Egypt.