Forecast: Possession of Medium Trucks in China

Analysis of Medium Truck Possession in China shows a consistent decline from 2013 to 2023. As of 2023, possession stood at 820,200 units, reflecting a persistent downward trend marked by an annual decline (year-on-year) of 7.25% between 2022 and 2023. Over the last two years, this trend shows a continued negative growth at a rate of 7.5%. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for the past five years reveals an average annual decrease of 7.99%.

Looking ahead, forecasts from 2024 predict a moderated decrease, with a five-year forecasted CAGR of -3.37%, implying a slower but continued decline. By 2028, the medium truck possession is projected to drop by approximately 15.76% from 2023 levels.

Future trends to watch include:

• Potential impacts of advancements in transportation technology and the shift to electric or autonomous vehicles.
• Economic policies or infrastructure developments influencing logistics and transportation demand.
• Environmental regulations and sustainability initiatives possibly accelerating changes in fleet composition.