The historical data on oil refinery capacities in the UAE shows a significant increase from 2013 to 2023, with a notable spike in 2015 due to a substantial capacity expansion. After a period of stabilization and small increases from 2016 through 2020, there was a slight dip in 2021, but a steady increase resumed leading up to 2023 where the capacity stood at 1300 Thousand Barrels Per Day. The average year-on-year variation over the last two years was around 2.07%, reflecting a stable and consistent growth rate. Long-term trends indicate a solid Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the past decade, averaging 1.1% over the last five years leading to 2023, but showing higher growth in earlier years.
Looking towards the future, the forecast for 2024 to 2028 suggests a continuing upward trend, with an expected increase in capacity. The forecasted five-year CAGR stands at 1.44%, and the total growth over this period is projected to be 7.41%, reaching approximately 1420 Thousand Barrels Per Day by 2028.
Future trends to watch include potential impacts of global energy policies on fossil fuel reliance, technological advancements in refinery efficiency, and investments in renewable energy which could influence growth rates and priorities in the UAE's oil refinery sector.
