Based on historical data, the demand for palm kernel oil in Brazil has fluctuated significantly. The demand reached its peak at 292.0 thousand metric tons in 2014 and has been on a general downtrend, closing at 241.0 thousand metric tons in 2023. Variations in demand were most stark between 2014 and 2015 with a 16.78% decrease, and again in 2020 with a decrease of 17.66%. The CAGR over the last five years (2019–2023) was -1.12%, indicating a consistent decline. Year-on-year variation for 2023 was -1.23%.
Looking ahead to the forecast period (2024–2028), the demand for palm kernel oil is expected to continue this downward trajectory. The five-year forecast CAGR is -0.84%, indicating a sustained albeit gradual decline, with a total forecasted decrease of 4.12% by the end of 2028.
Future trends to watch for include potential impacts of global agricultural policies, shifts towards more sustainable edible oils, and changes in domestic agricultural output in Brazil. Monitoring these variables will be crucial for accurately predicting future demand shifts.
