Forecast: Retail Trade Value in South Africa

The retail trade value in South Africa has shown considerable growth from 2013 to 2023, increasing from 66.47 billion ZAR to 112.46 billion ZAR. The period of 2014-2017 saw strong year-on-year growth rates averaging above 7%, peaking in 2016 with an 8.06% increase. However, growth slowed in 2018 and 2019, followed by a contraction in 2020 due to economic disruptions. The rebound started in 2021 with significant growth of 9.66%, continuing with positive, albeit slower, increases in 2022 and 2023 at 7.14% and 4.2% respectively.

The future outlook from 2024 to 2028 forecasts a 5-year CAGR of 2.84%, indicating a steady but moderate growth trend. Total growth over this period is projected to be 15.03%, reaching an estimated value of 134.55 billion ZAR by 2028.

Future trends to watch for:

  • Impact of economic policies and reforms on consumer spending
  • Technological innovations and e-commerce growth
  • Responses to potential macroeconomic challenges and global market conditions
  • Consumer behavior shifts post-pandemic