Forecast: Coal Consumption in South Africa

The coal consumption in South Africa saw varied trends over the last decade, ending at 3.36 Exajoules in 2023. Analyzing year-on-year percentage variations, there were notable fluctuations with increases in some years such as 2014 (1.3%), 2016 (7.54%), and 2019 (6.57%), and significant declines in others especially 2015 (-6.19%), 2018 (-5.11%), and 2022 (-5.61%). Over the last two years, there was a slight recovery with 2023 showing a 1.54% increase after a 5.61% decrease in 2022. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the last five years prior to 2023 exhibits a -0.95% decrease annually, indicating a general downtrend in coal consumption.

Looking forward, forecasts for 2024 to 2028 suggest a stabilization of coal consumption at around 3.45 Exajoules by 2028, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 0.4% and a total growth rate of 2.01% over this period.

The future trends to watch include shifts towards renewable energies, regulatory changes impacting coal production, and advancements in energy efficiency technologies. These factors are critical in determining whether coal consumption will level off, decline further, or see intermittent increases.