As of 2023, the actual final consumption of gas oil and diesel oil in rail transport in France stood as a baseline for analysis. From 2024 onwards, a consistent forecasted decline is anticipated: 2024 projects 84.06 thousand tonnes, dropping by approximately 11.3% to 2025, 12.8% to 2026, 14.5% to 2027, and a further 16.9% to 2028. The average annual decrease, or CAGR, over this period is expected to be 12.8%, highlighting a steady downward trend.
Future trends to watch for include increasing competition from electrified rail systems and potential regulatory shifts towards greener fuels, possibly intensifying this decline. Monitoring technological advancements and policy changes could further impact these forecasts.
