In 2023, the number of tertiary education graduates in China was approximately 15.145 million. Forecasts predict a steady increase in graduates, with a projected growth from 15.522 million in 2024 to 17.121 million in 2028. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 3.04% over the forecast period. Year-on-year, the number of graduates is set to increase by 2.66% from 2024 to 2025, 2.53% from 2025 to 2026, 2.42% from 2026 to 2027, and 2.31% from 2027 to 2028.
Future trends to watch for include the impact of government policies on educational expansion, shifts in labor market demand affecting graduate numbers, and technological advancements intersecting with higher education methods. These factors could influence both the quality and quantity of tertiary education outputs.
