Over the past decade, the demand for coconut oil in North America has exhibited a clear downward trend. Starting from 554.0 thousand metric tons in 2014, the demand steadily declined, hitting a low of 407.0 thousand metric tons in 2023. Key annual variations show significant declines in 2016 (-10.44%) and 2017 (-15.75%), while some years like 2018 showed a brief recovery (+11.17%). Yet, the overall Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years stands at -2.33%, reflecting a persistent decrease in demand.
Forecasted data indicate a continued decline in demand, with a projected 365.1 thousand metric tons by 2028. The forecasted 5-year CAGR is -1.74%, predicting a reduction of approximately 8.41% over the next five years.
Future trends to watch include:
- Consumer shifts towards alternative oils and fats due to health concerns.
- Impact of economic factors such as inflation and changing disposable income on purchasing behaviors.
- Potential innovations in coconut oil applications which could stabilize or reverse the declining trend.
- Sustainability concerns and their impact on coconut oil production and consumption patterns.
