Forecast: Hydroelectricity Generation in South Africa

Hydroelectricity generation in South Africa has shown significant fluctuation over the last decade, with values oscillating from a low of 0.62 Terawatthours (TWh) in 2016 to a peak of 3.1 TWh in 2022. The year 2023 saw a notable decline of 22.65% year-on-year, standing at 2.4 TWh. Over the past two years, growth had been strong, with a 53.62% increase in 2022 followed by the sharp drop in 2023. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years is recorded at 16.8%. Moving forward, the forecast for the next five years indicates stable growth, with a 5-year forecast CAGR of just 0.08%, predicting values to hover around 2.41 TWh by 2028 due to expected infrastructure stabilization.

Future trends to watch for:

• Investments in modernizing existing hydroelectric infrastructure could play a pivotal role in maintaining steady generation rates.
• Potential climatic variability impacting water resources could introduce additional fluctuations.
• Exploration of emerging renewable energy technologies and integration into the national grid might influence future hydroelectric output.
• Government policy and international regulations concerning sustainable energy practices could significantly shape the sector.