The data on international marine bunker CO2 emissions in Mexico shows significant fluctuations from 2013 to 2023. After a gradual increase from 2013 (2.53 million metric tons) to 2016 (2.79 million metric tons), the emission levels saw a notable drop in 2017 (2.47 million metric tons) and then further dipped to 2.19 million metric tons in 2018. A steep decline was observed in 2020, reaching an all-time low of 0.488 million metric tons, due primarily to the global pandemic. The following years saw a recovery, with emissions reaching 2.16 million metric tons in 2022 and rebounding to 2.63 million metric tons in 2023, indicating a strong recovery trend.
Key Year-on-Year variations:
- 2022-2023: +21.65%
- 2021-2022: +43.23%
- 2020-2021: +208.55%
The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the past five years reflects an average annual increase of 3.69%, depicting a recovery phase post-2020.
Future emissions are forecasted to exhibit a steady upward trend till 2028, with a 5-year CAGR predicted at 1.55%, leading to an overall forecasted growth of 7.98% by 2028. This signals a gradual increase in maritime activity and CO2 emissions from marine bunkers.
Future trends to watch for include:
- Implementation of stricter international maritime regulations aimed at reducing CO2 emissions.
- Advances in marine fuel technologies and the adoption of cleaner, alternative fuels.
- Global economic conditions influencing maritime trade volumes.
