Based on the data provided, the retail trade value in China is projected to grow steadily from 2024 to 2028, with an increase from 3.9 trillion Yuan Renminbi in 2024 to 4.31 trillion in 2028. In 2023, the retail trade value was at 3.8 trillion. The year-on-year growth rates are as follows: 2025 (2.82%), 2026 (2.49%), 2027 (2.43%), and 2028 (2.38%). The last CAGR, accounting for the average annual growth over the last five years, is approximately 2.53%.

Future trends to watch for:

Increased e-commerce penetration and digital transformation in retail.
Shifts in consumer preferences towards sustainable and high-quality products.
Expansion of retail activities in lower-tier cities driven by urbanization and rising incomes.
Potential impact of external economic factors and policy changes on consumer spending.