Forecast: Gross Premium Income of Primary Insurance in South Africa

The gross premium income of primary insurance in South Africa has seen a consistent decline over the past decade. Since 2013, there has been a notable drop from $51.6 billion to $39.2 billion by 2023, highlighting substantial challenges within the industry. The latest data from 2023 show a year-on-year variation of -1.51%, while the CAGR over the last five years stands at -1.46%.

Looking ahead, the forecasts predict a continued downward trend in gross premium income, with an expected reduction to $36.1 billion by 2028. The projected CAGR for the next five years is -1.25%, with an overall forecasted decline of 6.09% during this period.

Future trends to watch for include:

• Impact of economic factors such as inflation and currency fluctuations on premium income.
• Potential regulatory changes shaping the insurance landscape.
• Technological advancements influencing underwriting and risk assessment processes.
• Shifts in consumer behavior and expectations towards insurance products.