Forecast: Electricity Production in China

Electricity production in China has shown a mixed trajectory over the past decade, with periods of both decline and growth. Between 2013 and 2014, there was a slight drop in production by -2.08% following an 8.12% increase in 2013. From there, production generally trended upward, highlighted by notable year-on-year increases such as 13.39% in 2016 and 9.93% in 2021. In 2023, electricity production stood at 785.81 thousand gigawatthours, marking a 4.78% increase from the previous year. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years up to 2023 was 5.42%.

The forecast from 2024 through 2028 indicates an ongoing increase, albeit at a more moderated pace. By 2028, production is expected to reach 962.4 thousand gigawatthours, with a forecasted 5-year CAGR of 3.22% and an overall growth rate of 17.15% from 2023 levels.

Future trends to watch for include:

• The impact of renewable energy initiatives and policies on overall production.
• Technological advancements in energy efficiency and grid management.
• Potential regulatory changes and their impact on production capacities.
• Economic conditions influencing industrial energy demands.